The Fifth Discipline of the Trusted Strategic Advisor: Understand the Power of Patterns

The following is an excerpt from Influencing Leaders: The Seven Disciplines of the Trusted Strategic Advisor by James E. Lukaszewski with Helio Fred Garcia.

Both Jim and Fred, independently of each other and then together, discovered the power of patterns early in their careers. In Fred’s academic work he studies patterns of leadership, of language, of stakeholder reaction to language. He studies patterns of crises and patterns of social change.

Patterns have two kinds of power: explanatory power, helping make sense of things that happened before; and predictive power, helping foresee what is likely to happen in the future. Looking back, we can discern what never works, and looking forward, we can seek to avoid what we conclude never works. Similarly, looking back we can discern what always works, and looking forward we can seek to do what always works.

Some say that history repeats itself, and that those who fail to study and learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Our experience is the opposite. No matter how much we study history, we will undoubtedly repeat significant portions of it. But we can be selective in just what we repeat. The objective of pattern analysis is to pay strategic attention to what the key elements, timelines, and repetitive events reveal, and use those insights to forecast the future.

It’s the repetitive patterns of decisions, behaviors, and mistakes that key historical events illustrate, often in the same order, that are the incentives to study them as potential future scenarios. Such awareness provides significant insight into likely event sequences, actions, or decision schedules, and to explore the range of outcomes and the options available to change outcomes.

Often when we talk about this, especially in connection with the scenario planning required to be appropriately prepared for many serious management situations, the pushback we both get is that a particular client’s market, culture, product line, or history is so unique that what’s happened before can’t possibly be relevant to what’s going to happen. But that is wishful thinking on the client’s part.

Experience teaches the opposite. But we still hear the old bromide that a “cookie cutter” approach will fail. What you learn as a strategic advisor is that quite often a cookie cutter will help stabilize the situation and begin to counteract the new patterns so there is far less damage from collateral consequences caused by genuinely new or unique aspects of the new situation. The reality of what patterns teach is that cookie cutters actually work, again, and again, and again, precisely because history does repeat itself. Cookie cutters actually allow for faster response to urgent situations and provide immediate, experientially based action options. It beats guessing and the communal decision-making so evident when management is faced with unfamiliar, explosive, or toxic circumstances.

There is some virtue in inconsistency when it comes to strategy. one of the brain-busting attributes of strategists is that they can deal with this kind of ambiguity and resist the urge to set absolute pathways for making important decisions. The strategist relies on a variety of tools and disciplines, and among the most important is a healthy skepticism about the past. Patterns are helpful because they lead to the future, but they are also risky because they allow us to make assumptions based on the past that may or may not be helpful or even true. Rather than be confused, accept the fact that pattern expertise is an essential discipline. Each of us needs to look carefully at all patterns for our own inherent inconsistencies.

Can You Recognize What Comes Next?

One of the most critical tasks of a trusted advisor is to help the leader figure out what to do next. Understanding the power of patterns can help you do that, because patterns can often be used to forecast what is going to happen next. We all tend to think we are unique, our situation special, our challenges exceptional.

Jim’s and Fred’s careers are a testament to the fallacy of this kind of thinking. In fact, we’ve been advisors through all these years and have gone through so many different, mostly adverse scenarios with organizations and leadership, with many of the smartest, best, and most leading-edge organizations on the planet. Still, it’s crucial for us to remember that no matter how hard we study the past, prevention of similar future mishaps is an erroneous mission.

The reason we so carefully need to study past circumstances is so that we will be prepared to deal with them when they occur once again, and then again, and then again.

Do you have the discipline necessary to collect and organize stories, reports, and case histories of a wide variety of events, companies, people, and situations? Will you spend the time to analyze structures, timelines, variables, and key decision-points? Can you keep it up year after year? Begin collecting your war stories now. At first, you will be unlikely to see patterns. But over time, you will. And you will be amazed at how people will seek you out, thinking you can see the future. Of course, what you will really be seeing are patterns. As Peter F. Drucker, who saw many trends emerging years before anyone else, once said, “I never predict. I simply look out the window and see what is visible but not yet seen.”

Influencing Leaders: The Seven Disciplines of the Trusted Strategic Advisor provides the proven framework for becoming a trusted strategic influencer partner that leaders turn to when facing critical decisions. The book presents seven essential disciplines: establishing trustworthiness, mastering verbal influence, developing management perspective, thinking strategically, recognizing patterns, structuring constructive advice, and teaching leaders to apply counsel effectively.

Influencing Leaders is perfect for mid-career professionals, external consultants, and anyone aspiring to influence organizational leaders. Influencing Leaders demonstrates that true influence is about mastering the disciplines of foresight, strategic thinking, and trust that make trusted strategic advisors and influencers essential to leaders making their most challenging decisions.

Pre-order your copy of Influencing Leaders here.